Pisa v Padova: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 69%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.7 goals from Pisa and 0.8 from Padova, so Pisa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Pisa come into this on five straight defeats. Padova come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.5 goals between the two (xG 1.7-0.8), landing about 71% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.

We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.