What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Pisa and 0.8 from Padova, so Pisa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Pisa come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Pisa to win. Pisa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 59% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Padova only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 59% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
