Empoli v Arezzo: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Empoli to win 37%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Empoli host Arezzo at home in a Serie B clash on 11 September 2026. Empoli sit eighth in the 20-team table, six points clear of the three-game stretch that has them level on points with the side above and just one point ahead of the club below. The spot is in the zone that decides the euro places, so a win would keep the push alive. Arezzo are down in fourteenth, also on three points from three games, but with a –5 goal difference. They are level on points with the team above them and two points ahead of the side beneath. Both clubs are looking to improve their positions, and a three-point swing could shift the mid-table battle.

Empoli’s recent form over the last eight fixtures shows a mix of results. They beat Carrarese 1-0 away, then suffered a 3-1 defeat to Mantova away. A home win followed, a 1-0 victory over Cremonese, and a 2-2 draw at Monza away. The streak continued with a 1-0 win at home over Avellino, before a 2-0 loss away to Venezia. In those eight games Empoli have scored seven and let in nine. They have kept three clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Two of the matches featured three or more goals, and both teams scored in three of the games. At home in the last three outings they have two wins and a draw, showing a solid recent record on their own ground.

Arezzo come into the fixture after three games that have not been kind to them. Their latest result was a heavy 5-0 defeat away to Hellas Verona, preceded by a 3-2 loss at home to Palermo. The only win in the run came against Avellino, a 2-1 away success. Across the three matches they have found the net four times while conceding nine. They have failed to score in one of those games. Two of the encounters produced three or more goals, and both sides scored in two of the fixtures. The two defeats arrive on the back of a five-day break since their last outing.

The numbers we have for the upcoming game suggest an open contest. We expect Empoli to average about 1.6 goals and Arezzo about 1.4, a total of just over three goals. There is little difference between the two sides on those figures, indicating chances at both ends. The recent form of both teams also points to a match where goals can be found, especially given the frequency of three-plus-goal games in their runs.

Our pick is Empoli to win. The price on offer is 2.05, which is shorter than what we feel the game warrants. We see Empoli as the stronger side on the numbers, with a roughly 37 % chance of coming out on top. The price looks good for that probability. For the pick to go wrong, Empoli would need to be held to a draw or lose despite their home advantage and the better recent record. If Arezzo manage to keep a clean sheet and find a goal, the balance could tip. All things considered, backing Empoli looks the cleaner play.