How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Modena to win 36%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Sudtirol and 1.1 from Modena, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Modena to win. Modena shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.2), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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