Padova v Ascoli: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Padova to win 35%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.1 goals from Padova and 1.0 from Ascoli, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Padova to win. Padova are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.0), and we make them about 37% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.