Pisa v Virtus Entella: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Pisa to win 56%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.5 goals from Pisa and 0.8 from Virtus Entella, so Pisa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Pisa come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Pisa to win. Pisa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.8), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.72, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.