How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Mantova to win 39%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Mantova and 1.3 from Pisa, so Mantova come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Pisa come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Mantova to win. Mantova are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.3), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.70, which works out at about 37 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Pisa have won two of the last two meetings.
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