How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Verona to win 64%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from Verona and 1.3 from Vicenza, so Verona come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Vicenza come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Verona to win. Verona are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.6-1.2), and we make them about 66% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.93, which works out at about 52 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
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