What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Modena and 0.9 from Empoli, so Modena come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Modena to win. Modena are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.9), and we make them about 50% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.67, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Modena have won two of their last five.
✓Empoli have won two of their last five.
Recent meetings
31 Jan 2026Empoli 0 - 0 Modena
24 Oct 2025Modena 2 - 1 Empoli
