Ascoli v Avellino: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Ascoli to win 39%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Ascoli and 0.8 from Avellino, so Ascoli come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Ascoli to win. Ascoli are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.8), and we make them about 41% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.