How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Mantova to win 46%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Mantova and 0.9 from Sampdoria, so Mantova come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sampdoria come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Mantova to win. Mantova are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.0), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 46 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Mantova have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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