What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Mantova and 0.9 from Sampdoria, so Mantova come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sampdoria come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Mantova to win. Mantova are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-0.9), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.15, which works out at about 47 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
