How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Radomlje or Draw 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Radomlje host Mura at home in the Slovenia Prva Liga on 27 October 2026. Both clubs sit in the relegation zone. Radomlje are bottom of the table, 10th out of 10, with seven points from eleven games and a goal difference of minus nine. Mura sit just above them in ninth place, four points ahead, on eleven points from twelve games and a goal difference of minus eleven. The two are separated by only four points, so a win for either side could move the loser closer to the drop zone. The price for a Radomlje or draw bet is 1.56, which is longer than our own reading of the game.
Radomlje have not won any of their last four matches. Their most recent result was a 2-2 draw away at NK Bravo, followed by a 3-3 draw at home against Koper. Before that they lost 2-1 away to NK Brinje Grosuplje and 3-0 at home to Maribor. In those four games they have scored six goals and let in ten. They failed to find the net in one of the matches. Three of the four games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them. The side’s last appearance was ten days ago.
Mura come into the game after eight outings that have produced two wins, four draws and two defeats. Their most recent fixture was a goalless home draw with Nafta. Prior to that they shared a 3-3 draw away at Olimpija Ljubljana, then a 0-0 home draw with NK Celje, a 6-1 home loss to Aluminij, a 1-1 away draw with St Patrick’s Athl., and a 2-1 home win over Sfîntul Gheorghe. The last four road games gave them one win, two draws and one loss. Over the eight matches they have scored ten goals and allowed fifteen. They kept two clean sheets and failed to score in two games. Six of the eight contests featured three or more goals, and both sides scored in six of them. Mura also played ten days ago.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have been high-scoring affairs with both sides finding the net. Given the recent patterns – Radomlje’s four-goal draws and Mura’s three-goal stalemates – we can expect another open contest with chances on both ends. The numbers suggest a total of about three goals, and both teams have a good probability of scoring at least once. The match is likely to be decided by who can finish their chances first.
We back Radomlje or the draw at 1.56. The price is longer than we think the game will be, so the bet gives us a safety net while still favouring the home side, who have a slightly higher expected goal tally. For the pick to fail we would need a clear win for Mura, which looks unlikely given their three-game run of draws and their recent defensive frailties. If the game stays tight and both teams score, our selection should pay out.
Recent results
Radomlje have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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