How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Kaizer Chiefs to win 33%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Lamontville Golden Arrows and 1.0 from Kaizer Chiefs, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Kaizer Chiefs to win. Kaizer Chiefs shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.0), and we make them about 35% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 33 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Kaizer Chiefs have won three of the last five meetings.
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