Milford FC v Durban City: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Milford FC to win 45%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.1 goals from Milford FC and 0.6 from Durban City, so Milford FC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.7 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Milford FC to win. Milford FC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-0.6), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.75, which works out at about 36 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.