How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made TS Galaxy to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from TS Galaxy and 0.8 from Chippa United, so TS Galaxy come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Chippa United come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: TS Galaxy to win. TS Galaxy are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-0.8), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
TS Galaxy have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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