What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Orlando Pirates and 0.4 from Durban City, so Orlando Pirates come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Durban City come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Orlando Pirates to win. Orlando Pirates are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.4), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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