How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Over 1.5 goals 68%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Alanyaspor and 0.7 from Erzurumspor, so Alanyaspor come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.3 goals (xG 1.6-0.7), and two is enough to land it, landing about 71% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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