How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Galatasaray and 0.8 from Kasimpasa, so Galatasaray come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.2 goals (xG 2.3-0.9), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 79%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Galatasaray have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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