How it turned out
We projected about 4.7 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Vaduz to score 2 or fewer 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.4 goals from Vaduz and 2.3 from Thun, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 4.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Thun come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Vaduz to score 2 or fewer. This is about Vaduz's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 2.3 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 72%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Thun have won four of the last five meetings.
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