How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even in terms of chances. Our goal expectations are 1.4 for Zurich and 2.4 for Young Boys, giving a total of about 3.8 goals. That suggests both teams will have opportunities, but the numbers also show Young Boys as the stronger side. The match should be open, with chances at both ends.
Recent form backs that picture. Zurich have struggled, winning only one of their last five league games and losing the previous two. Young Boys are in much better shape, unbeaten in their last five with three wins and two draws. In the last five meetings between the clubs, Young Boys have won four times and drawn once, while Zurich have not won any. Those games have averaged 2.8 goals, and the most recent encounter ended 3-0 to Young Boys.
We pick the Under 4.5 goals. Our thinking is simple: the expected total of 3.8 goals sits comfortably under the 4.5 line. The price of 1.42 matches our view of the game, and we feel it is a good price for the outcome. Our chance of being right is about 70 out of 100, so we are fairly confident.
It would have to take a very high-scoring game for us to be wrong. If both teams find the net more often than our expectations – say a 4-2 or 5-1 result – the under would fail. That would be a surprise given the recent low-scoring trend in their meetings. We still hold our view strongly, but we know the line is close, so a few extra goals would flip the result.
Recent results
Young Boys have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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