What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Chornomorets Odesa and 0.9 from Liviy Bereh, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Chornomorets Odesa to win. Chornomorets Odesa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.0-0.9), and we make them about 36% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.85, which works out at about 35 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Liviy Bereh a draw or better. We make it about 36% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
