What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Polissya Zhytomyr and 0.7 from Kudrivka, so Polissya Zhytomyr come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Polissya Zhytomyr to win. Polissya Zhytomyr are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.7), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Kudrivka a draw or better. The price is shorter than our own read of about 68%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
