How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Central Español or Draw 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Montevideo Wanderers and 1.1 from Central Español, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Central Español or Draw. This covers Central Español or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.65, which works out at about 61 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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