How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Deportivo Maldonado to win 36%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Juventud de las Piedras and 1.2 from Deportivo Maldonado, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Deportivo Maldonado to win. Deportivo Maldonado shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.2), and we make them about 38% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 36 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.60, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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