How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Boston River to win 53%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Boston River and 0.9 from Club Atlético Progreso, so Boston River come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Boston River come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Boston River to win. Boston River are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.9), and we make them about 54% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.97, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Boston River have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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