How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Club Atletico Peñarol to win 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.7 goals from Cerro and 1.6 from Club Atletico Peñarol, so Club Atletico Peñarol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Cerro come into this on two straight wins. Club Atletico Peñarol come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Club Atletico Peñarol to win. Club Atletico Peñarol shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.6), and we make them about 62% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.54, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Club Atletico Peñarol have won four of the last five meetings.
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