How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Boston River or Draw 66%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Boston River host Juventud de las Piedras at their home ground in the Uruguay Primera División. Boston River sit 11th of 16 with eight points from eight games and a -2 goal difference. Juventud de las Piedras are much higher, 7th with thirteen points and a +4 goal difference. The gap between the two is five points, but the table is tight: Progreso sit just above River with four points more, while Defensor Sporting are level on points below them. For River a win would lift them out of the relegation zone, while Juventud can push for a top-half finish if they keep collecting points.
Boston River have not won any of their last three matches. They fell 2-1 to Club Atlético Peñarol away, then lost 2-1 at home to Club Atlético Progreso, and were beaten 3-2 by Racing away. In those three games they have scored four goals and let in seven. Every match has produced three or more goals and both sides have found the net each time. The run leaves them on three straight defeats and they will be looking to stop the slide.
Juventud de las Piedras arrive unbeaten from their last three outings. They drew 0-0 with Cerro at home, then travelled to beat Albion 3-1, and most recently shared a 1-1 draw with Danubio at home. Over the three games they have scored four goals and conceded two, keeping one clean sheet but also failing to score in the goalless draw. Two of those matches featured three or more goals and both teams scored in two of them. Their form suggests they can pick up points even when they do not score.
The two clubs have met before, but the data we have does not give any specific head-to-head scores. What we can see is that both sides have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with each side both scoring and conceding in most of their last fixtures. That pattern points to a game that will likely see goals on both ends, rather than a defensive stalemate.
Our pick is Boston River or a draw at odds of 1.46. The price sits close to our own reading of the game and offers a short-price way to stay safe. Boston River have a 71 % chance of scoring at least once and a 36 % chance of scoring twice, while Juventud de las Piedras have a 69 % chance to find the net and a 33 % chance to score twice. The odds reflect the slight edge we give the home side, but a draw is still very possible. The pick would fail if Juventud scores early and keeps a clean sheet, or if River’s defence concedes more than they can match. Otherwise we see a good chance of at least one point for Boston River.
Recent results
Boston River have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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