How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Danubio or Draw 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Danubio host Cerro Largo at their home ground in the Uruguay Primera División on 4 October 2026. Danubio sit 15th out of 16 with four points from eight games and a goal difference of minus 7. One place above them is Central Español with a single point advantage, while Albion sit just below. Cerro Largo are a little higher in the table, 13th with five points and a minus 5 goal difference. Defensor Sporting sit three points ahead of Cerro Largo and Central Español sit level with them. Both clubs are fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone, so a point could be crucial for either side.
Danubio have not won in their last three matches. Their most recent game was a 1-0 loss away to Defensor Sporting. Before that they drew 1-1 with Montevideo Wanderers at home and earlier still managed another 1-1 draw away at Juventud de las Piedras. In those three games Danubio have scored two goals and let in three. They failed to find the net in the defeat to Defensor and both draws saw each side score once. None of the three matches produced three or more goals.
Cerro Largo come into the fixture on the back of two straight defeats. They were beaten 2-0 at home by Nacional and then lost 2-0 away to Deportivo Maldonado. Their last outing was a goalless draw at home against Central Español. Across those three games Cerro Largo have not scored at all while conceding four. They kept a clean sheet in the draw but failed to find the net in the two defeats. Like Danubio, none of their recent matches featured three or more goals.
When the two sides have met before there is almost nothing to separate them in terms of scoring. The expected total for this game is just 1.8 goals, and the chances of either team scoring are very close – 65 % for Danubio and 63 % for Cerro Largo. Both clubs have a low probability of scoring twice, around a quarter. The recent form of each side points to a tight, low-scoring affair with few chances and a good chance that both teams will be held to a single goal or none at all.
Our pick is Danubio or the draw. The price of 1.26 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, giving us a little extra safety. We see a 69 % chance that either Danubio will earn a point at home or the match will finish level. For this to go wrong, Danubio would have to lose outright, which would require them to be shut out while Cerro Largo manage to score – something that has not happened in either side’s recent games. The price looks good for the safety net it offers.
Recent results
Cerro Largo have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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