What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Racing and 1.3 from Club Atletico Peñarol, so Club Atletico Peñarol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Club Atletico Peñarol come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Club Atletico Peñarol or Draw. This covers Club Atletico Peñarol or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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