How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Cerro or Draw 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Cerro and 1.0 from Central Español, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Central Español come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Cerro or Draw. This covers Cerro or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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