How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Club Atletico Peñarol to win 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Club Atletico Peñarol and 0.7 from Montevideo Wanderers, so Club Atletico Peñarol come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Montevideo Wanderers come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Club Atletico Peñarol to win. Club Atletico Peñarol are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.7), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Club Atletico Peñarol have won four of the last five meetings.
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