How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Racing or Draw 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Racing and 0.8 from Cerro Largo, so Racing come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Racing or Draw. This covers Racing or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.18, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Racing have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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