How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Club Atlético Progreso to win 35%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Club Atlético Progreso and 1.0 from Cerro, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Club Atlético Progreso to win. Club Atlético Progreso are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.0), and we make them about 37% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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