How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Cerro Largo to win 42%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Cerro Largo and 0.9 from Central Español, so Cerro Largo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Cerro Largo to win. Cerro Largo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.9), and we make them about 43% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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