Juventud de las Piedras v Danubio: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Juventud de las Piedras to win 42%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Juventud de las Piedras and 0.9 from Danubio, so Juventud de las Piedras come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Juventud de las Piedras to win. Juventud de las Piedras are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.9), and we make them about 43% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.