How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Deportivo Maldonado to win 35%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Defensor Sporting and 1.1 from Deportivo Maldonado, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Deportivo Maldonado to win. Deportivo Maldonado shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.1), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.50, which works out at about 40 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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