Nacional v Montevideo City Torque: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Nacional or Draw 73%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Nacional host Montevideo City Torque at the Nacional ground on 5 October. Both clubs are in the middle of a tight table. Nacional sit seventh with 14 points from eight matches and a modest +2 goal difference. Just above them, Juventud de las Piedras hold the same points, while Cerro sit just below with no gap. Torque are much higher, third with 19 points and a strong +11 goal difference. One place above them is Peñarol, a single point ahead, and two spots down is Deportivo Maldonado, two points behind. A win for Nacional would pull them level with the team above and could start a climb, while Torque look to keep pressure on the leaders and widen the gap to the teams behind.

Nacional’s recent form has been mixed. In their last eight games they have won four, drawn one and lost three. The most recent results are a 2-0 win away at Cerro Largo, a 1-1 home draw with Sportivo Ameliano and a 3-2 home victory over Defensor Sporting. Before that they suffered two heavy 4-0 defeats at home to Famalicão and a 3-0 home win over 2 de Mayo. In those eight matches they have scored 11 goals and let in 14. They kept three clean sheets but also failed to find the net twice. At home they have been less consistent, with two wins, one draw and three losses in the last six fixtures, and five of those eight games featured three or more goals, three of which saw both sides score.

Torque have been a bit more consistent in their last six outings, recording three wins, one draw and two defeats. Their latest games are a 1-1 home draw with Peñarol, a 2-0 home loss to Deportivo Maldonado and a 4-1 away win over Central Español. Prior to that they beat Cienciano 3-0 at home, beat Liverpool FC 3-1 at home and lost 2-0 away to Cienciano. Over those six matches they have scored 11 and conceded 7. They have kept only one clean sheet and have been shut out twice. Three of the six games produced three or more goals, and in three of them both teams found the net. Their most recent draw with Peñarol showed they can hold their own against a top side.

When the two clubs have met before the games have usually been open, with goals on both ends. The numbers we have for this clash suggest a similar pattern: Nacional are expected to score twice on average, while Torque are likely to get a goal. Both sides have a high chance of scoring at all – 85 % for Nacional and 71 % for Torque – and there is a good chance each will find the net more than once. The picture is of an attacking contest, not a defensive slog, and the recent form of both teams points to plenty of chances.

We back Nacional or a draw at 1.32. The price matches our view that Nacional are the stronger side but the game is likely to be close and open. A draw would be a safe result if Torque manage to keep the match tight, while a Nacional win would be rewarded by their home advantage and higher scoring average. The pick should work unless Torque pull off a surprise clean sheet and score twice, or Nacional fail to find the net at all. In those cases the result could slip, but we think the price is good for the safety net it offers.