What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from Ilves and 1.1 from Jaro, so Ilves come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.6 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Ilves come into this on three straight defeats. Jaro come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Ilves to win. Ilves are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-1.1), and we make them about 69% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Jaro to spoil this. We make it about 69% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
