How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Both teams to score 55%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
TPS host SJK at home in a Veikkausliiga clash on 8 September. TPS sit second in a six-team table with 32 points from 23 games and a +5 goal difference. They are three points behind leaders FC Lahti and four points ahead of Ilves. SJK sit fourth with 20 points and a –8 goal difference, eight points behind Ilves and five ahead of FF Jaro. Both clubs are fighting for the few places that matter as the season draws to a close, and a win for either side would tighten the race at the top.
TPS have not been able to turn their form into wins lately. In their last eight matches they have recorded two wins, four draws and two defeats. The most recent results are a 1-1 draw away at IF Gnistan, another 1-1 draw at the same opponent, a goalless draw at home to Inter Turku, a 3-1 away win over VPS, a 1-1 draw away at KuPS and a 3-0 home victory over Mariehamn. Those eight games produced ten goals for TPS and eight against, with two clean sheets and two games where they failed to find the net. Their last three fixtures have all been draws, and at home they have one win, one draw and one loss in the same period.
SJK have struggled to pick up points. Over their last eight outings they have managed one win, two draws and five defeats. The sequence begins with a 0-0 draw away at AC Oulu, a 2-1 home loss to Lahti, a 2-0 away defeat at Mariehamn, a 2-2 home draw with Gnistan, a 3-0 home win over HJK and a 2-1 away loss to Jaro. In those eight games SJK have scored seven and let in eleven, keeping two clean sheets while failing to score in four matches. Their recent form includes four games without a win and, on the road, one draw and three losses in the last four trips.
When the two sides have met in the last five meetings, SJK have edged TPS with three wins to two, and the games have averaged 1.8 goals. The most recent encounter on 4 July saw SJK win 3-1 at TPS. Given the modest scoring rates of both teams – 1.6 goals per game for TPS and 1.1 for SJK – the history suggests that both sides are capable of finding the net, but neither side tends to dominate with a large margin.
We think both teams to score is the best call. The price of 1.56 is shorter than our own view of the game, which gives the bet a 55 % chance of succeeding. Both clubs have shown they can score and also concede, and the recent head-to-head record shows goals on either side. The bet would fail if the match turns into a defensive stalemate, for example a 0-0 draw, or if TPS manage a clean sheet while SJK struggle to hit the net. Otherwise, a goal from each side looks the most likely outcome.
Recent results
SJK have won three of the last five meetings.
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