What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from VPS and 0.9 from AC Oulu, so VPS come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
VPS come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.4 goals (xG 1.4-0.9), and two is enough to land it, landing about 74% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. We make it about 74% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
