How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Over 1.5 goals 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Carabobo and 0.9 from Deportivo La Guaira, so Carabobo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Deportivo La Guaira come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.1 goals (xG 1.2-0.9), and two is enough to land it, landing about 68% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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