How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Monagas SC to win 45%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Monagas SC and 1.0 from Zamora FC, so Monagas SC come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Zamora FC come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Monagas SC to win. Monagas SC are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.0), and we make them about 47% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.86, which works out at about 54 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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