Portuguesa v Estudiantes de Mérida: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Estudiantes de Mérida to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from Portuguesa and 0.9 from Estudiantes de Mérida, so Portuguesa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Estudiantes de Mérida to score 1 or fewer. This is about Estudiantes de Mérida's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 75%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.37, which works out at about 73 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.