What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Deportivo La Guaira and 0.6 from Zamora FC, so Deportivo La Guaira come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Zamora FC come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Deportivo La Guaira to win. Deportivo La Guaira are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-0.6), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Zamora FC to spoil this. We make it about 60% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.