What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Deportivo Táchira and 0.8 from Monagas SC, so Deportivo Táchira come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Deportivo Táchira to win. Deportivo Táchira are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-0.8), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Monagas SC a draw or better. We make it about 67% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.