How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Academia Puerto Cabello and 0.8 from Rayo Zuliano, so Academia Puerto Cabello come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.5 goals in total (xG 1.7-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 76%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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