How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Portuguesa and 0.8 from Trujillanos, so Portuguesa come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Portuguesa to win. Portuguesa are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.8), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.97, which works out at about 51 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Trujillanos a draw or better. At around 71% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.