How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. We made BW Linz to win 53%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from BW Linz and 1.0 from Admira Wacker, so BW Linz come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Admira Wacker come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: BW Linz to win. BW Linz are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.0), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 53 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.52, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
BW Linz have won two of the last two meetings.
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