How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Floridsdorfer AC to win 42%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Floridsdorfer AC host FC Liefering at home in the Austria 2. Liga on 18 September 2026. Both clubs sit in the middle of the table. Floridsdorfer AC are fifth out of sixteen with ten points from six games and a goal difference of minus one. They sit just above SW Bregenz, who are one place higher but level on points. FC Liefering sit sixth, also on ten points from six games, but their goal difference is plus three. They are one place below Floridsdorfer AC and level on points with them, while Austria Salzburg sit one place below Liefering. The two teams are neck-and-neck, so the match could move either side up the table. A win for the home side would give them a small edge over Liefering and a chance to pull away from the cluster of teams around them.
Our pick is Floridsdorfer AC to win. The numbers show them as the stronger side, with an expected 1.5 goals compared with 1.2 for Liefering. The chance they will score at all is 78 % and the chance they will score twice or more is 46 %. Liefering have a 71 % chance to find the net and a 36 % chance to score twice. The price of 2.45 matches our own reading of the game. We think a Floridsdorfer win is the cleaner play, with a 42 % chance of success. For this to go wrong they would need to be shut out completely while Liefering manage to score at least once, which looks less likely given the scoring probabilities.
Recent results
FC Liefering have won four of the last five meetings.
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