How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from SPG HOGO Wels and 1.2 from Rapid Wien II, so SPG HOGO Wels come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: SPG HOGO Wels to win. SPG HOGO Wels are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.2), and we make them about 50% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.20, which works out at about 45 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Rapid Wien II a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 50%.
