How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made SPG HOGO Wels (Draw No Bet) 61%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from SPG HOGO Wels and 1.2 from Rapid Wien II, so SPG HOGO Wels come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: SPG HOGO Wels (Draw No Bet). SPG HOGO Wels are favoured here (xG 1.8-1.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a SPG HOGO Wels defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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