What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Anderlecht and 1.5 from Genk, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Correct score 1-1. This is our most likely exact scoreline for the game (xG 1.6-1.4). Correct score is a long shot by nature, so treat it as a small-stakes punt rather than a banker.
We put the chance of that landing at about 11 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
Correct score is unforgiving: the right winner but the wrong number still loses. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 11%.
